15:00 Chepstow — Bill Lewtons 80th Birthday Novice Stakes model predictions

Madame Dragon (GB)

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Second foal; dam multiple point winner, placed over hurdles and fences; on paper, she's a very unlikely candidate to make a winning debut in a good Flat novice such as this.

Prophet Squeeze (IRE)

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A lowly rated maiden over jumps; makes stable/Flat debut after 275-day absence; impossible to recommend.

Alfaraz (GB)

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Runner-up on both 2yo starts (1m/8.5f) and not beaten far when sixth of ten in what has predictably turned out to be a strong Newbury novice (1m2f, good) last month, despite racing too freely in the lead; will be hard to beat if first-time hood helps him to relax here.

Blue Hercules

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Last of eight in 1m3f Newbury maiden on last month's debut but belied triple-digit odds when fourth of nine there (1m2f, good) a fortnight ago and will have each-way claims if he can make any further progress.

Echo Of Stars (IRE)

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Probably below the form of his two 2yo runs when fourth of 11 on seasonal reappearance at Newbury (1m2f, good) a fortnight ago but that was still a pretty good effort; won't be far away if first-time tongue-tie has any positive effect.

El Nay (IRE)

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Out of a useful and well-connected 1m winner; placed on all three starts, most recently when second of five in quite valuable Chester maiden (10.3f, good) this month; does not appear to be progressing and ideally needs to learn to settle better, but ought to be on the premises again.

Kinetic Impact (GB)

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90,000gns yearling; second foal; dam well beaten 1m2f AW in France only start, half-sister to French 1m2f Listed winner Kapour; in good hands but has tough standard to reach on debut.