16:38 Chester — General Elliot Croft Handicap (GBBPlus Race) model predictions

Advance Twentyfive

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Second in a maiden here last September; best form in valuable sales races (also 7f) on next two outings but nowhere near repeating it in his two starts this term; hampered early in a York handicap last time (7f; 22-1) and this is a major rethink on his trip, but none too persuasive.

Timber Twelve (GB)

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Made most to win 1m novices on AW at Kempton in September and Southwell in March; that perfect start was followed by a lesser front-running effort at Epsom (8.5f, good) on turf/handicap debut but he looks bred for 1m2f.

Knowledge (GB)

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Benefited from the runner-up hanging sharply left when narrow winner of 1m novice at Southwell (AW) in January on debut; outsider of five when he finished last in novice at Yarmouth (1m2f, good; bred to stay) seven weeks ago, behind talented rivals but it did not advertise his claims; gelded before this handicap debut.

Bemersyde (IRE)

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Minor honours over 1m at Newmarket (good) and Windsor (good to firm) on first two starts, before a lesser show under 7lb claimer on latest outing; one to note stepped up to 1m2f for this handicap debut.

Crockham Heath (GB)

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Front-running wins in a Southwell novice (1m) and Wolverhampton handicap (9.4f; with authority) in his only two AW races; those were way better than turf performances at Newmarket on debut and in 1m2f handicap (good to firm) on latest outing, which is a concern even though these are early days.

Mayaada (IRE)

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After 12 races, for two wins, she should be far more exposed than today's rivals; however, her best form was on last two outings when second at Epsom (8.5f, good) and winning with a steady late bid at Salisbury (upped to 1m2f, good; 4lb higher today) and that earns respect.

Blue Noon (IRE)

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Minor honours in maiden/novice events at Leicester (7f), Newmarket (1m2f) and Salisbury (1m3f); led over 2f out last time but looked green in front and carried her head a bit high; early days, going handicapping first time.

Folk Pageant (GB)

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Last of nine on handicap debut at Southwell (1m, AW; 11-1) in March but won starts either side in a maiden at Lingfield (1m, AW; made all) and eight-runner handicap at Newmarket (1m2f, good; always prominent); the latter was by a short head at 25-1 but she's gone up just 3lb since that rallying display and that does not look harsh.

Home Hero (IRE)

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Finished closer each time in his three-race 2yo career and met trouble in running when fourth of nine at Haydock (1m, good) on final outing, looking on an even keel only very late in the day when running on well; gelded the following day; highly likely to stay and he's a fascinating handicap newcomer who needs a close look for any strength behind him in the betting.

Carwyn (IRE)

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Twice showed fair form at 1m in his four Irish races last term for Ger Lyons; well beaten on handicap debut there, however, and it was the same story this month on both British starts.