15:26 Kilbeggan — Joe Quinn Transport Longford Handicap Hurdle model predictions

Kalsman (IRE)

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Downpatrick winner in June 2024 on good ground; ran only once last year; showed the benefit of a comeback run when beating Justicialism by 3l at Down Royal last month; rider reported he hung badly left at Downpatrick last time; decent chance if he handles this track.

Justicialism (IRE)

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Over four years since he won back-to-back handicap hurdles for Brian Hamilton; lightly raced in recent seasons; bounced back to form on second start for Noel Kelly when second to Kalsman over 2m4f at Down Royal last month; notched another second behind the improving Bella Union over 2m1f at Down Royal on latest; may go one better now.

Sheer Raz (IRE)

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Not beaten far on his last two starts, tongue-tie might help to produce some improvement; one of the more likely candidates.

Anodandawink (IRE)

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Out of his depth in maidens, always at big odds; finished second in a point-to-point when with Derek O'Connor; inauspicious start to handicaps at Clonmel; better when third over a longer trip here last time; could go close if jumping more fluently

Annie's Belle (IRE)

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Needs to eliminate jumping errors; fourth behind a stablemate of Justicialism on latest; needs to find a bit extra.

Blue Reed (FR)

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Still a maiden after 22 starts over hurdles; hard to be confident against that background, although recent form is quite respectable.

Brother Hollie (IRE)

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Never in contention when a remote seventh in Down Royal event won by Kalsman; not an obvious candidate.

Finnicky Filly (IRE)

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1-22 hurdles record in a negative, unplaced twice since a pleasing C&D second in April; other seem more reliable.

Inches Away (IRE)

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Showed nothing in four maiden hurdle outings early last year and has changed stable; can only be watched in the circumstances.

Tuff Days (IRE)

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Record of 0-32 under rules; best of three point runs last season when runner-up at Dromahane last month; made a bad mistake at the ninth when a remote sixth over fences at Limerick ten days ago.

Glaoinn An Airgead (IRE)

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0-14 over hurdles, never closer than fifth in a race of any description; up against it after a break.

Rajjnatin (IRE)

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Modest form in maidens and handicaps for his previous trainer; more encouraging on yard debut in 2m5f Down Royal handicap in March when well backed and finishing third; flopped when favourite at Wexford; cheekpieces now as well a usual tongue-tie.

Sekifi (IRE)

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Has never reached the first three; looked as if he might not be a lost cause judged on Bellewstown sixth; however, ran poorly at Limerick on Thursday

Westin Pimpernel (IRE)

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Very weak form; only 3lb out of the handicap but impossible to make a case for her.