16:35 Newbury — South Downs Water Handicap (GBBPlus Race) model predictions

Baileys Khelstar (FR)

0%

Missed the whole of 2025; needs to put a lesser effort in a 0-95 contest at Hamilton (1m5f, good) last month behind him, but this is easier and he is just 1lb higher than for his last win, which came over this trip.

Barenboim (GB)

0%

Just 1lb above his last winning mark, but is 6-31 on the AW and 0-18 on turf, including six starts over hurdles; others more solid.

Naval Tribute (GB)

0%

Has done well since switched to Flat turf for his last two starts with the visor added, winning at Beverley (1m4f, good to firm) in April before second of 12 in an apprentice handicap at Ascot (2m, good) last month (winner followed up at Chester on Saturday); up just another 1lb and high on the list.

Calvert (GB)

0%

1-20, but no doubting his consistency and was only just behind Naval Tribute when third of 12 in an apprentice handicap at Ascot (2m, good) last month; has had more chances than his old rival, but should again go well from the same mark.

John Galt (FR)

0%

Showed a fine attitude when just getting the better of a subsequent winner to make it seventh-time lucky on turf debut at Leicester (1m4f, good to firm) last month; 3lb higher, but remains unexposed and is shortlisted if seeing out the longer trip (stays 1m6f).

Vaguely Royal (IRE)

0%

Third in his last three starts, but may not have achieved that much and remains without a win on the Flat since the end of 2023; others more compelling.

Now The Eagle (FR)

0%

Ex-French; no questioning his stamina with the form of his last three starts at Kempton (2m, AW) reading 122; has something to prove under these conditions, though.