17:30 Fairyhouse — Fiver Fridays At Fairyhouse Rated Race model predictions

County Carlow (IRE)

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Promise on AW (found 1m too far on second start) before making all in first-time cheekpieces at Sligo (6f, soft); had returning Substance well back that day; will need to have improved again to take this.

Morehampton (IRE)

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7f winner at two and fair fifth in Listed contest over C&D; hasn't settled over 7f in both runs this term and has faded; drop back in trip a good move and will have more to offer if they can get him to race on an even keel.

Ocean's Breath (IRE)

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Has 11lb pull for three-quarters of a length with Kindergarten from last year's debut clash at Navan; beaten at odds-on next time but he was a backward juvenile; off the mark by 3l on AW in April and runner-up now rated 82; nothing went right when favourite for premier handicap at Naas, got warm beforehand and rider decided to follow his draw up the stands' side but all the action was far side; tongue-tie.

Luna Mia (GB)

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That bit more exposed than the rest after eight starts at two; ran in some hot contests before getting off the mark in 6f Naas maiden in September and good second in Birdcatcher Nursery back there when last seen the following month; trainer feels she's best on easy ground; ran well first time out last term.

Breaking Dawn (GB)

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Solid runs at two and dropped back to 6f to win on heavy ground at the Curragh in March (form not worked out); only 10-3 for Madrid Handicap at Naas a week later, but it must have come too soon as he weakened to finish last; freshened up since and headgear left off.

Substance (IRE)

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Was dropped out on handicap debut over 7.5f at Roscommon and luckily they went hard and he came through to easily beat a subsequent winner; only 5-1 at Curragh next time, never landed a blow over 7f after getting out of his ground at halfway; will need a good pace to aim at, so a hostage to fortune in that respect.