13:20 Doncaster — Northwick Group Handicap model predictions

Run This Way

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All eight wins have been on good or slower and last six have been over 6f; made it 2-2 in blinkers when beating 16 rivals at Thirsk last month and she ran well again when fourth in hat-trick bid at Nottingham (6f, good) on Wednesday; should be in the thick of things again and it would be a positive if rain arrives.

Moonhall Lass (IRE)

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0-22 in Ireland but she's 2-4 since joining James Owen; still looks feasibly treated on her clearcut win at Salisbury (6f, good to firm) last month but she didn't fire when favourite at Windsor last time and needs to step up again after that.

Bibendum (GB)

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Stayed on well to win a Newcastle handicap (5f, Tapeta) in November but he's not really threatened since and was well held over 6f at Newcastle in February last time; that took his record to 2-30 and he's not easy to predict.

Mu Mu Land (GB)

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Back to form when runner-up at Southwell (6f, AW) in April but he failed to back that up on his return visit two weeks ago; remains unexposed on turf but overall record is 1-13 and others are more convincing.

Roundhay Park (GB)

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13-time winner who is ideally suited by slow ground; his last success was off 2lb higher at Ripon (6f, soft) last summer but he's been well held in both runs this season; now drops back in trip but this veteran needs a major revival.

Instant Bond (GB)

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5yo who has won two of his last four starts including a last-gasp success at Leicester (6f, good to firm) in April; remains feasibly treated off only 2lb higher and he's still unexposed on turf; shortlisted.

Brave Empire (IRE)

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Very useful juvenile/3yo for Roger Varian but his last win was in February 2024 and he's not made an impact in seven runs this year; mark continues to fall but losing run is up to 20 and others are preferred.

Ticktyboo (GB)

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Just one win from 21 starts and that was in a maiden in August 2024; has dropped a long way in the weights but he generally struggled for Nigel Tinkler last year and was last of ten on recent stable debut at Newcastle (7f, AW); visor is now added.

Hurstwood

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Recorded his tenth turf win when scoring at Nottingham (6f, good to soft) in October; now 2lb lower than for that success but he's been short of spark in three runs this season and needs to raise his game.

Mickey Mongoose (GB)

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Two 7f AW wins at Southwell this year but he's not easy to predict and was only fourth of seventh at Newmarket (7f, good) last time; that took his turf record to 1-19 and he has something to prove back at this trip.

Melissa Honey (GB)

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0-14 but she reached the frame over 6f at Southwell (AW) in April and was a creditable third back on turf at Leicester (7f, good to firm) 12 days ago; continues to edge down the weights and has each-way claims again.

Solar Biricz

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Better signs for new stable when fourth with visor added at Redcar (5f, good to firm) in April but he finished tailed off at Thirsk (6f, good) three weeks ago; has something to prove again after that and the headgear is now discarded.

Canaria Sun

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Some creditable efforts in handicaps including when third at Redcar (6f, good) last month, but his form nosedived at Ayr two weeks ago and he's now 0-10.

Desert Master (GB)

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Triple AW winner but he's 0-12 on turf; had a close call over 5f at Southwell in April but he was always behind after missing the break at Beverley (5f, good to firm) ten days ago; down the list.

Asadjumeirah (GB)

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Three wins on AW last year but his last turf success was in April 2022 and he returned to this sphere with a well-held sixth at Thirsk (6f, good; 12-1) last month; others are more appealing.