14:40 Epsom — Coolmore Coronation Cup (Group 1) model predictions
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Coolmore Coronation Cup (Group 1)
Prediction Leader
Bay City Roller (IRE)
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Consistent colt whose Group 1 form is non-domestic, namely a success in Germany (1m4f, soft) last November and good second at the Curragh (10.5f, good) latest start; only a neck behind Lambourn on worse terms at Chester on reappearance, albeit with that rival rusty and likely to improve for the run, according to Ryan Moore; needs a personal best to land this prize.
Rest of field
Calandagan (IRE)
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Superstar gelding who has a record of 222211111 since racing at Group 1 level and is the highest-rated racehorse in the world; couldn't quite get past Jan Brueghel in this race last year but turned the tables in the King George and is on an impressive roll going into another rematch with that rival; prevailed at Meydan (Sheema Classic) last time despite the race not panning out ideally; duly strongly respected, assuming the ground is okay (not certain to run if it's a slog scenario).
Convergent (IRE)
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Scored on soft ground on debut; flopped in the German race won by Bay City Roller but otherwise progressive and overcame trouble to defy a Group 2 penalty in Group 3 contest at Newbury (1m4f, good) on seasonal debut, taking record to 5-8; about 3l behind Lambourn at Chester last term but is now in the same ball park as that opponent on ratings, with a chance of further improvement to boot; adds great interest to this race.
Illinois (IRE)
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Runner-up in two Cup races last term; only a neck behind stablemate Jan Brueghel in the 2024 St Leger but was beaten about 5l by that opponent last month when bidding for a second success in the Ormonde at Chester, doing nothing to close their current ratings differential; perhaps in here to set the pace and ensure a proper test.
Jan Brueghel (IRE)
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High-class performer who has a record of 6-8 overall and 2-3 at Group 1 level, adding to his 2024 St Leger win when knuckling down the better to beat Calandagan in this contest (good to soft) 12 months ago; combination of cheekpieces and setting an unsuitably steady pace perhaps contributed to his King George defeat behind that rival; reappearance success in the Ormonde at Chester (1m5f, good) sets him up nicely for another Coronation Cup bid.
Lambourn (IRE)
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Most wins on good ground but has form on soft; held on by only a neck from Bay City Roller on better terms in the Huxley (1m2f Group 2) at Chester on seasonal debut but proved game in first-time cheekpieces and, based on Ryan Moore's post-race comments, will come on for the run; notable contender in the retained headgear returned to the scene of his biggest moment, namely a clearcut success in last year's Derby (followed up in the Irish version).