16:00 Epsom — Betfred Derby (Group 1) (No Geldings) model predictions

Alderman

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Travelled well and challenged from the rear at Newbury (1m3f, good; 17-2) on reappearance seven weeks ago, sticking to his task manfully too while chasing home an exciting prospect at a respectful distance; a promising, scopey sort from a famous middle-distance family but his progressive form in maidens, without a win, does not make him a serious Derby contender.

Ancient Egypt (IRE)

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Frankel colt bought for 1,100,000gns as a yearling; all four races on good to firm; Beverley and Goodwood novice wins last summer before the Group 2 Royal Lodge saw a comprehensive end to his unbeaten record; he returned to Newmarket, however, with an ultimately authoritative win in a five-runner Listed race (1m2f) five weeks ago, helping to make the running; 1m4f beckons strongly after that and he's included in each-way calculations.

A Taste Of Glory (GER)

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Won a Brighton maiden and 1m2f AW handicap at Lingfield; however, he ended last season with last of ten in a French Group 1 (1m2f, very soft) and subsided rapidly to be last of six in the Lingfield Derby Trial (11.6f, good to firm; 33-1); his owner is renowned for Derby contenders who have run well at big prices, but hopes for this one may be stretching it.

Balzac (GER)

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Novice winner whose rallying third of six in Listed race here (1m2f, good) in April suggested that longer trips would suit; tried 11.6f in the Lingfield Derby Trial (good to firm) and recorded his highest rating, but Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance were just over 6l ahead of him; major work to do.

Bay Of Brilliance (GB)

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Half-brother to smart Flat and hurdle winner Absurde; odds-on winner of a maiden at Goodwood (1m2f, soft) and novice at Redcar (1m1f, good to soft; made all) on last two starts as 2yo; pushed Maltese Cross all the way in Lingfield Derby Trial (11.6f, good to firm) and could improve on that first-time-out display; more to do but he's heading the right way.

Benvenuto Cellini (IRE)

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Frankel colt who was dominant in a maiden last July, a Group 2 at Leopardstown (1m) in September and Group 3 Chester Vase (12.5f, good) one month ago; his free-flowing, long-striding action was seen to good effect in those races, but not on heavy ground when third in the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster (1m) in October; soft ground would also introduce something for him to prove but otherwise he brings strength of stamina and among the best form; if the ground is okay, a bold show looks assured.

Christmas Day

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Maiden success was on heavy going; Group 3 Ballysax at Leopardstown (1m2f, good to yielding) on April reappearance made it three wins in a row and his Dante third at York (10.2f, good) next time was at least as good on form; while lacking anything like the same dash as winner Item at York, and also unable to get to grips with stablemate Action, he did plug on as if 1m4f could help; it clearly needs to.

Item (GB)

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Well on top last September in a maiden at Kempton (7f, AW) and novice at Bath (1m, good to firm); non-runner in Group 1 Futurity due to heavy going; not the easiest to settle when reappearing in Group 2 Dante at York (10.2f, good; 11-2) last month but he mastered front-running Action in the last half furlong to win it well, putting Christmas Day in the shade as well; settling a bit better (fine as 2yo) would cement claims for 1m4f but this son of Frankel won going away and brings clear potential, plus leading form and an unbeaten record.

James J Braddock

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Second start as 2yo was a 6l win in Curragh maiden (1m, heavy); never able to challenge on return in the Group 3 Ballysax won by Christmas Day and couldn't have left it any later in the Derby Trial back over Leopardstown's 1m2f (good) four weeks ago, but upstaging Pierre Bonnard so dramatically in the latter reinforces the feeling that 1m4f will suit him well; his sire's sole Group 1 win was at this trip; each-way player for trainer and jockey who won the Oaks yesterday.

Maltese Cross (FR)

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Debut was on soft; all four of his races were tight finishes and he won the last three; pulled it out of the fire against useful rivals in a valuable novice event at Newbury (1m2f, good) and narrowly maintained an advantage over Bay Of Brilliance as the pair drew clear in a ding-dong battle for the Lingfield Derby Trial (11.6f, good to firm) four weeks ago; his pedigree is all about 1m4f, including with his sire and dam's sire both Derby winners, and he also shapes as if every yard today will suit; needs to pull out more again but has to be in each-way calculations.

Pierre Bonnard

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Asserted late on to finish firmly on top last October in a Group 3 at Newmarket (good to firm) and Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud (very soft) and they were over 1m2f; 3yo campaign got off to a muted start but he briefly hit the front in Derby Trial at Leopardstown before James J Braddock swooped and Aidan O'Brien has stressed that he went gently with him at home until after that race; his sire and dam's sire were Derby winners (dam won 1m2f Group 1 Nassau) and he now moves up from 1m2f; he looked every inch a serious Derby contender last term and that's probably still the impression to go with.

Poker (IRE)

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Having fetched 4,300,000gns in 2024, he is the most expensive yearling colt ever sold at auction in Europe; by Wootton Bassett out of a sister to Oaks winner Was; on the other hand, he was left nearly 9l behind by Bay Of Brilliance at Redcar (1m1f, good to soft) in October and sported cheekpieces at 10-1 when a front-running second of four to a stablemate in Haydock novice (1m4f, good to firm) in April; admirably tenacious in the latter but the dream was once of so much more.

Rebel Rocker (GB)

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Strong late on to grab a maiden at Kempton (1m, AW) in November and came from last to second in the six-runner Listed Trial here (1m2f, good; 33-1) in April; hopes for the latter form seem to have been punctured and although he looks capable of better and shapes as if 1m4f will suit him well, 1m4f in something other than the Derby would seem much more realistic.