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17:12 NavanCusack Hotel Group Family Raceday July 11th Handicap (Div II) model predictions

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17:12 Navan

Cusack Hotel Group Family Raceday July 11th Handicap (Div II)

Good14 runners1m5fFlat

Prediction Leader

Appian Way (FR)

Appian Way (FR)

0%

Flat maiden has won two over hurdles; out of form in that sphere this year and while he has gone well here before, he's hard to fancy on recent showings; tame effort again over hurdles at Clonmel on Friday.

Rest of field

God Of Thunder (IRE)

God Of Thunder (IRE)

0%

Won off 73 at Limerick last summer (12.5f, good); poor form since, though his penultimate run at Roscommon wasn't devoid of promise; not as good there on latest but now drops into 0-60 company and is on a dangerous mark.

Felicity Smoak (IRE)

Felicity Smoak (IRE)

0%

Best effort yet on the Flat when a 3.75l sixth of 20 at Leopardstown (1m5f, good) on return from 139 days off, denied a clear run (1.5l behind Eastern Wind); sharper for that, same mark here and should be thereabouts with smoother passage.

Folly Beach (GB)

Folly Beach (GB)

0%

1-23 on turf; beaten 7l in this last year and just 1lb lower now; off since poor run over hurdles at the Galway festival; may need this run.

Nita (GER)

Nita (GER)

0%

Three wins at 1m2f-1m3f in Germany but bar a Dundalk third last November, hasn't really threatened for this yard; off since December and returns with stable in decent fettle, so market check advised.

Cahir Bay (IRE)

Cahir Bay (IRE)

0%

Handicap debutante didn't show a whole lot in maidens at 9.5f-1m4f on varying ground; off since October and sports cheekpieces; best watched.

Eastern Wind (GB)

Eastern Wind (GB)

0%

Knows how to win and shaped as though her turn was near when running on well for second at Leopardstown (ahead of Jurality and Felicity Smoak); big chance if she backs that up off the same mark.

Mystic Rose (IRE)

Mystic Rose (IRE)

0%

Maiden showed a glimmer of promise at Bellewstown in April but poor twice since; yet to prove she stays this trip and much more needed to get her head in front.

Jurality (GB)

Jurality (GB)

0%

Maiden running consistently well in defeat this year; closely matched with a couple of these rivals on Leopardstown third on penultimate and on latest Down Royal second (2m, good); nudged up 3lb but should continue to give a good account.

Mephisto (IRE)

Mephisto (IRE)

0%

Two solid runs since return from winter break; 4l third at Dundalk (1m4f), then 0.5l behind Jurality when third at Down Royal (Synchronize fourth); 2lb rise for that seems a touch harsh, but place claims again.

Just Another Eagle (IRE)

Just Another Eagle (IRE)

0%

1m4f AW winner is 0-15 on turf; beaten a head over 1m6f here last October on soft off 2lb lower; 1m was inadequate on seasonal return at Gowran; should come on plenty for that and not discounted back up in trip.

Edge Of Darkness (IRE)

Edge Of Darkness (IRE)

0%

4-20 on turf but hasn't won since 2023; not a bad run over 2m at Listowel (2m, good) after missing the break latest; more needed back in trip, but positive rider booking.

Creative Dancer (IRE)

Creative Dancer (IRE)

0%

Long-standing maiden showed a bit more when third at Sligo (10.5f, yld-sft) on latest when 5lb wrong; 3lb out of the handicap here and stamina to prove for this trip; others appeal more.

Synchronize (IRE)

Synchronize (IRE)

0%

Maiden produced one of his better efforts on latest when not far behind a couple of these rivals at Down Royal (2m, good); place shout if he backs that up, but overall profile suggests that's not guaranteed.

Talking Tough (IRE)

Talking Tough (IRE)

0%

Not the easiest to win with, as his 2-63 record on turf illustrates; never involved after a slow start in a QR race at Listowel latest; unproven at this trip.