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15:30 Southwell — Southwell Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) model predictions

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15:30 Southwell

Southwell Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

Good4 runners2m4f88yClass 4Chase

Prediction Leader

Nazare (FR)

Nazare (FR)

0%

Lost his way after winning twice over hurdles in November (2m4f, good to soft; once here) and was a disappointing favourite when well-held third of four on last month's chasing debut at Ludlow (3m, good); may yet turn things around but comes here with quite a bit to prove.

Rest of field

Manowest (IRE)

Manowest (IRE)

0%

Just 1-12 over hurdles and ran poorly when upped to 3m2f at Perth last month; makes chasing debut from a workable mark, though, and his Irish point win in 2024 bodes well for his prospects over fences.

Thank You Blue (GB)

Thank You Blue (GB)

0%

Returned to form and completed quick hat-trick over hurdles in February (2m-2m4f, good to soft/soft) but quickly went off the boil towards end of last season (pulled up on two of last three appearances); competes off his lower chase mark here and might be allowed an uncontested lead but has a poor completion rate over fences; risky.

Cher Monsieur (FR)

Cher Monsieur (FR)

0%

Scored over hurdles at start of this year and built upon his promising chase debut when winning four-runner race at Plumpton (2m4f, good) a fortnight ago; only 3lb higher here and probably still on the upgrade; wears tongue-tie for first time; good chance.