18:50 Limerick — Twilight Summer Racing @ Limerick Handicap model predictions
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Twilight Summer Racing @ Limerick Handicap
Prediction Leader
Bella Colombia (IRE)
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Added a second AW win at Dundalk in March (1m); 0-14 on turf but has run some decent races in defeat, including C&D third in April; Roscommon run since was a solid one so remains on the shortlist.
Rest of field
Lady Arwen (GB)
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Ended long losing run with short head victory at Gowran in April (1m, soft); safely held later in month off 4lb higher over today's C&D so needs to bounce back.
Ardeur (GB)
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Won a 6f maiden for Ralph Beckett and later some decent efforts in defeat in France up to 1m2f; hasn't had her preferred decent ground for current connections so potential improver back on better ground and drops in grade; outside draw probably not ideal.
Usuario Amigo (GB)
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7f Brighton maiden win in September 2024; yet to score for this yard, best effort when third in a rated race here last summer (6.5f, good), testing ground probably wasn't ideal at Cork last time.
Hexagonal (IRE)
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Maiden with a little enough mileage on the clock; creditable efforts in handicaps of late but more needed.
Out On Friday (IRE)
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Eight career wins have been over mid-distances, most recently nicely improved from comeback run when second at Fairyhouse last month (1m2f) after setting a decent pace; back in trip here.
Bucaneer's Spirit (IRE)
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Four wins at around this trip, most recently off 60 at Cork in April; decent third at Roscommon on latest so remains on a competitive mark; one to consider.
Perfect Judgement (IRE)
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Four AW wins, sole turf win came at Leopardstown (7f); didn't count on both runs last month for current yard under 7lb claimer but badly hampered by loose horse second occasion; senior rider takes over and don't rule out off career-low mark.
Faire La Nouba (IRE)
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Limited maiden but has run well here over longer trips; hurdling last autumn and seems best watched on Flat return over an inadequate trip.
Ohmali (IRE)
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Heavy-ground winner over this trip at Gowran last September and handled quicker ground well at Leopardstown last month when coming from good bit back to finish second to an improver (third won next time); one to consider, despite wide draw.
Java Wood (IRE)
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40-1 win on AW/handicap debut last August and solid opening efforts on turf this season, including Leopardstown fourth (Ohmali second) over this trip; didn't count at the Curragh on latest but Keane booking takes the eye.
Jasmine Affanalis (IRE)
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Tipperary winner last summer was only just denied a second career win over this trip at Killarney last month; 2lb higher but major player.
Mags (IRE)
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Sole win came on AW in late 2024; back from long absence when well held over C&D (first-time hood) in April and has changed yards again since.
Robot Rock (FR)
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Placed on AW in France; slowly away, soundly beaten both starts last month for this yard; big drop in trip and wide draw here.
Goofy Gander (IRE)
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Never counted after slow start on handicap debut at the Curragh in April (6f); half-sister to 1m4f Group 3 winner Trustyourinstinct so can be expected to improve as she goes up in trip; market has to be watched.
Genuine Jim (IRE)
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Both wins on soft, including over this trip at Cork last season; two runs this season poor and ideally wants it softer so opposable.
Mythical Rock (IRE)
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First reserve; now with his fifth different trainer; gained an overdue breakthrough win at Dundalk in January, two turf runs since for this yard okay; not one to readily rule out.
Friars Gate (IRE)
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Second reserve; lightly raced maiden whose recent handicap debut run was hampered by a slow start; new headgear combination fitted.
Notforalongtime (GB)
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Third reserve; prolific AW winner is just 1-29 on turf but some good placings this season at Cork and the Curragh; remains of interest off lower turf mark.