17:00 Ascot — Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) model predictions

Double Rush (IRE)

4.8%

Back-to-back wins — the latest a comfortable success at Newmarket off a mark 10lb lower than today's — mark Double Rush as the one to beat here, and a top course handler takes the reins on a horse still looking ahead of its current official rating despite the penalty.

Far Above Dream (IRE)

4.6%

Progressive and course-loving, but ranked 23 of 28 on our figures and lugging 129 lb from stall 17 off a career-high mark makes this a tough ask, despite four wins in the last five starts and a tendency to keep finding improvement.

Dubai Bling (IRE)

4.6%

Touched off by a head last time out having encountered interference at a crucial point, Dubai Bling arrives in decent nick but carries 132lb from stall 23 in first-time cheekpieces, and a mark of 102 looks stiff for a horse our figures rank 25th of 28.

Binhareer (IRE)

4.4%

Beaten a neck at York last time off a 5lb lower mark, Binhareer arrives here on the upgrade and looking capable of Listed/Group-level company, while a stiff track at today's trip plays to her strengths; 38 days between runs is the one note of caution.

Spy Chief (GB)

4.2%

Placed when beaten a neck in a Listed race at Salisbury 28 days ago, Spy Chief is winless in his last five starts but that runner-up effort brings him close to his best; he handles today's trip and ground, though 7f could test his stamina, and he's run well at this track before.

Leovanni (IRE)

4.1%

Yet to score in recent starts, Leovanni was making ground when hampered at Lingfield last time and shaped better than a two-length fourth suggests; a former Group winner now fitted with a tongue-tie returning from 119 days off, there's upside here if sharper for the break.

Evening Saigon (IRE)

4%

Cheekpieces go on for the first time, and there is some encouragement in a neck second last time off a mark of 92 — though today's conditions see this lightly raced sort stepping up 5lb, and ranked 20 of 28 on our figures, the case for it is thin.

Fandom (GB)

3.9%

Thriving for a new yard after landing a Thirsk handicap last time, this US Listed winner arrives on a mark that still looks workable and has course-distance form to lean on, though that sixth in recent starts and a possible preference for faster ground give slight pause at 130 lb from stall 1.

Run Boy Run (GB)

3.6%

Scored narrowly in a Sprint Handicap at this mark three starts back before a poor latest effort, and first-time headgear plus a trainer in form add appeal — but 84 days off and a mark that may stretch him keep this a tentative each-way proposition at best.

Toyotomi (FR)

3.5%

Landed a Goodwood handicap by a neck 13 days ago, dropping in class and getting a clear passage, and remains fairly treated on older French form — but ranked 22 of 28 on our figures, carrying 127 lb from stall 8 makes the task considerably stiffer here.

Sondad (GB)

3.5%

Sondad brings a recent win at Epsom on his side — taking a handicap by two lengths off a reduced mark — and a solid course record with proven versatility on the going, but ranked 21st of 28 on our figures, first-time headgear adds an unknown, and he faces a big field from stall 2 carrying 127 lb off a restored official mark of 97.

Trefor (IRE)

3.5%

Showed a return to form when a staying-on fourth at Windsor 26 days ago, beaten three lengths off this same mark, but the official rating of 96 looks a stiff ask; effective at five-to-six furlongs on sound ground, though that late fade raises questions about lasting home.

Heathcliff (GB)

3.4%

Beaten a long way on a turf return in a Listed heat last time, Heathcliff looks to have plenty to prove on grass and sits at the foot of our rankings — though a winning profile over the trip and decent AW form provide slim crumbs of comfort.

Realign (FR)

3.4%

Cheekpieces did the trick at Carlisle 21 days ago when Realign won a handicap by 1¼l, but today's higher mark looks a stiff ask; acts on any turf ground over this trip and the trainer is firing at 37%, yet that 5lb rise in the official rating may take the edge off him.

Royal Zabeel (IRE)

3.3%

Listed winner in fair form and effective over today's trip on this going, Royal Zabeel brings solid credentials to stall 3 in a large field — though having found one too good for stamina close home when beaten two and a quarter lengths off this mark here last time, there are questions over whether it can go one better.

Candy (GB)

3.2%

Took the Ayr Silver Cup by two lengths off a 6lb lower mark two starts back, but flopped in Listed company most recently and returns after a 259-day absence; the trainer is in good nick and this trip and ground suit, though Candy may need the run to find full stride.

Flash Harry (GB)

3.1%

Fitted with a hood for the first time and carrying 130 lb from stall 26, Flash Harry has course-and-distance form to call on and has shown he can bounce back after a flat outing — his Salisbury run last time may have been needed on quicker ground than ideal, but fast conditions today suit, and a return to winning form isn't out of the question.

Caburn (IRE)

3%

Patchy recent form and a mark that looks tough to overcome are the main concerns, but first-time cheekpieces and a notable jockey booking add interest, and Caburn does handle this trip and going well enough to be competitive if producing a career-best.

Ten Pounds (IRE)

3%

Fitted with cheekpieces for the first time, Ten Pounds shaped with real promise when runner-up by just half a length in a Carlisle Listed contest last time out, and looks fairly handicapped off a mark of 99 with today's longer trip an additional plus — he can carry his head awkwardly under pressure.

Two Tribes (GB)

2.9%

Took a handicap by a short-head off this identical mark at Meydan in January, yet two unplaced efforts since suggest the handicapper has its measure, and 106 days off the track adds another question mark — albeit a form trainer and first-time headgear offer some encouragement.

Roman Dragon (GB)

2.9%

Narrowly got up at Chester three starts back off a 5lb lower mark, but has been out of the frame twice since and the 100 rating looks a stiff ask — ranked near the foot of our assessments, first-time visor added from stall 12.

Fast Track Harry (GB)

2.9%

Beaten 8¼ lengths at York last time after being sent to the front too soon, Fast Track Harry has since slipped to the bottom of the rankings despite two earlier wins in this sequence; he looks fully exposed to the assessor now, and first-time cheekpieces offer little obvious rescue from stall 21.

Completely Random (GB)

2.8%

Cheekpieces fitted for the first time could spark the turnaround after being left with it all to do from the rear at this course last time; yet to be beaten for today's jockey and progressive on this surface, though two unplaced efforts in recent starts demand respect.

Mitbaahy (IRE)

2.7%

Fitness must prove itself after 84 days away, with recent outings — including a poor effort in the Cammidge Trophy — leaving wellbeing in question; yet Mitbaahy is effective over this trip on any ground, and a bounceback to his placed form would make him a live midfield contender from stall 27.

Hammer The Hammer (IRE)

2.6%

Winless in recent starts but this second outing after a wind operation should see significant improvement — the York run was always about getting fit again. Capable of setting a strong pace over today's trip and going, though stall 7 may complicate that front-running style.

Apollo One (GB)

2.6%

Held every chance at Epsom 14 days ago but beaten five-plus lengths below form, leaving questions; yet to win in his last six starts, though the 2nd and 3rd suggest ability, his mark of 97 looks fair and he handles today's conditions.

Thunderbear (IRE)

2.4%

Thunderbear has yet to hit its stride this season and comes into this ranked near the foot of the field on our figures, with an unplaced effort last time out doing little to inspire confidence. A proven performer over the trip on varying ground at least offers some encouragement after 54 days off.