17:35 Ascot — Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) model predictions

Bayaann (GB)

7.9%

Bayaann arrives in fine heart with two wins from three recent starts, including a determined display to beat a penalty burden at Windsor last time — debut form has been boosted since and he gets in on a fair opening mark of 98. The sole concern is whether this stiff 130 lb weight can be managed over the trip.

Lost Boys (IRE)

7.6%

Winning three of its last five starts looks eye-catching, but Lost Boys faces a considerably tougher assignment off a career-high mark now, and our figures rank it 14th of 16 — a stiff ask, even for a horse that clearly stays the trip and acts on a sound surface.

Perisher (IRE)

6.6%

Back-to-back wins and an impressive 4½-length success at Naas last time out make Perisher the one to beat here; a significant jockey booking adds further confidence, and though the first-time hood is worth monitoring, this consistent performer looks well treated returning to a handicap over a familiar trip.

Sahara King (GB)

6.6%

Cheekpieces go on for the first time as Sahara King steps up off a career-best effort — beaten a head at Newbury last time off a 6 lb lower mark — and with more likely to emerge over a trip and ground he handles well, he remains competitive from stall 17 on 133 lb.

Echo Of Stars (IRE)

6.4%

Broke through at Chepstow last time in a tongue-tie, scoring by 2¼ lengths, and stays on a mark of 90 with potentially more to offer now in handicap company — but ranked 13 of 16 on our figures makes this a difficult proposition to get excited about.

Princling (GB)

6.4%

His pedigree points to this longer trip suiting, Princling showed plenty on his recent handicap debut at Carlisle when going down by just 2½ lengths off a lower mark, and he moves like one the step up to 10f will improve. The fourth last time out is the one note of caution.

Harmonics (IRE)

6.4%

Twice a winner in its last three starts, including a six-length novice success at Doncaster, Harmonics arrives in good nick but ranks 12th of 16 on our figures, and the penalty of 129lb in a competitive handicap makes this a considerably tougher ask.

Nil Bua Gan Dua (USA)

6.1%

Winning at Roscommon 40 days ago over an extended trip suggests this two-year-old has more to offer in handicaps, and the form looks solid — but ranked bottom of the field on our figures with a speed rating of 62, it faces a stiff ask from stall 11 off 129 lb.

Folk Pageant (GB)

6%

Folk Pageant arrives on the back of a strong recent run — three wins from its last five starts — but a hefty rise in the weights and a step up in grade make this a considerably sterner test, and at 15th of 16 on our figures it's hard to make a strong case.

Spyce (GB)

5.8%

Beaten three and a half lengths off this very mark at Newbury last time out, Spyce shaped with promise on handicap debut yet may need a stiffer test to show his best; a tall, lightly raced colt who acts on today's conditions and rates unexposed at the trip.

Bourbon Blues (GB)

5.6%

Winless in its last five starts and well held last time at Newbury, Bourbon Blues at least handles today's trip and conditions; the 135 lb burden is stiff, and a question mark lingers over whether that French Group form fully represents its true level.

Amadeus Mozart (IRE)

5.5%

Placed twice in his last four starts and running to peak level when runner-up at Listed level latest, Amadeus Mozart brings strong recent form over today's trip with a top jockey aboard, though the shortened distance may blunt his edge.

Sunset On Leros (GB)

5.5%

Cheekpieces applied for the first time as Sunset On Leros steps up in trip, which breeding suggests should suit, and she showed renewed spark on turf at San Siro last time; however, 50 days between runs and a mark of 97 make this a tough ask against stronger rivals.

Balzac (GER)

5%

Balzac has placed three times in recent starts and handles today's trip and conditions, but his last two outings have exposed limitations at the top level, and the official mark of 97 leaves him plenty to find on this evidence.

Allegresse (GB)

4.1%

Connections landed this race last year and Allegresse handles today's trip and surface well, but stamina remains unproven and those back-to-back wins now feel a while ago — the latest ninth at Epsom, where softer ground likely told, clouds the picture from stall 1.