18:10 Ascot — Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (GBBPlus Race) model predictions

Le Destrier (IRE)

10.4%

Freshened after a creditable third in the Levmoss Stakes (Group 3) at Leopardstown — where he was checked and still closed — Le Destrier travels well for a stable that landed this last year and should be suited by this trip and ground; the slight concern is that his recent consistency has been mixed.

A Piece Of Heaven (FR)

9.8%

Consistent and progressive, A Piece Of Heaven arrives on the back of a Chester handicap win — forging clear from the front over a testing trip — and clearly handles today's going and distance range; first-time headgear under 130 lb is the one factor to weigh up.

Maxi King (IRE)

9.7%

Consistent but winless in his last five starts, Maxi King at least caught the eye when a narrow second over an extended trip at Chester 43 days ago, showing his stamina holds over distance — though connections will need that improvement to translate here off 130lb.

Mr Hollywood (IRE)

8.8%

Switched to a top yard that won this race last year and with more improvement likely, Mr Hollywood's winning form and solid placed efforts are in his favour, though weakening late on his most recent hurdle start hints he may not yet be fully wound up.

Illinois (IRE)

8.7%

His second in the Gold Cup over course and distance is the strongest form on offer here, and though Illinois was asked only to set the gallop at Epsom last time out, this smart stayer returns to a track and trip that suit on going it handles, partnered by the course's standout jockey.

Dallas Star (FR)

8.1%

Winless in recent starts and rated 11th of 13 on our figures, Dallas Star faces a stiff task carrying 130 lb, and the latest fourth at Down Royal — racing prominently over 2m — hinted the extra distance stretches stamina. Back at 14f could help.

French Master (IRE)

8%

Fresh headgear goes on for the first time in cheekpieces, and while French Master's most recent effort — a well-held fifth in a Group 3 — was a letdown, this horse has been largely consistent otherwise, handles today's going well, and a trainer firing at 26% adds confidence. The worry is that last outing in headgear underwhelmed.

Berkshire Sundance (IRE)

6.5%

Showed good form prior to that Chester run 43 days ago where stamina appeared to stretch, and first-time headgear plus a trainer who excels here offer encouragement — but 130 lb and that question over the trip make this a genuine each-way proposition at best.

Carlton (GB)

5.1%

Carlton has been placed in its last two outings and clearly handles today's going, but ranked 10 of 13 on our figures and needing to find more stepping up in class, this 130lb burden makes it tough to get excited, despite genuine stamina in its favour.

Hipop De Loire (FR)

5%

Winless in its last five starts and well beaten at Goodwood on a latest flat outing, Hipop De Loire arrives here in first-time blinkers off a 28-day break, though a course-and-distance-proven handler in form and a useful German Listed background offer some grounds for hope.

Aajej (GB)

4.4%

Ninth of nine last time out, beaten nine lengths in a handicap here, raises real stamina doubts over this trip, and first-time cheekpieces won't mask those concerns. A 77-rated sort carrying 129lb, ranked near the foot of our figures.

Pivotal Days (GB)

2.8%

Winless in its last five starts and poor in both codes this term, Pivotal Days faces a stiff ask here — ranked last on our figures and seemingly out of its depth in this company, though the going should suit.